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Red33
60763.5
412520.7
683113.4
Blue25
96139.4
96808.9
406014.4
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions47330204060803325

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4125
#14
20.70.5
21.821.2
Auto7.2
Teleop13.2
End0.3
red by 6.3
4060
#18
14.40.4
14.013.5
Auto5.1
Teleop6.2
End3.0
Second
6831
#10
13.40.5
12.912.3
Auto4.6
Teleop6.3
End2.5
red by 4.0
9613
#20
9.40.4
8.88.4
Auto4.8
Teleop4.0
End0.6
Third
6076
#27
3.50.7
6.45.7
Auto1.2
Teleop2.3
End0.1
blue by 5.3
9680
#22
8.90.6
8.98.3
Auto3.8
Teleop3.8
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
28%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed