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Red70
514813.6
250616.6
363024.8
Blue32
802911.8
389115.6
319721.4
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46453540505560707032

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.82.0
16.718.8
Auto11.7
Teleop12.7
End0.5
red by 3.5
3197
#18
21.40.8
21.320.5
Auto6.9
Teleop11.8
End2.7
Second
2506
#42
16.62.0
12.514.5
Auto7.6
Teleop6.9
End2.1
red by 0.9
3891
#22
15.67.5
15.68.1
Auto4.8
Teleop9.8
End1.1
Third
5148
#21
13.62.0
12.414.5
Auto7.5
Teleop5.4
End0.7
red by 1.7
8029
#45
11.81.0
10.79.7
Auto5.4
Teleop6.5
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
24%Melody oddsEarned30%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed