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Red120
99907.4
115642.7
916921.1
Blue70
921921.2
703314.4
999412.6
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7943010015012070

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.70.8
41.242.0
Auto16.4
Teleop24.4
End1.9
red by 21.5
21.20.5
20.320.8
Auto6.0
Teleop14.5
End0.7
Second
21.10.8
19.620.4
Auto7.9
Teleop12.9
End0.3
red by 6.7
14.40.5
13.514.0
Auto5.8
Teleop7.4
End1.2
Third
9990
#21
7.40.9
5.76.6
Auto4.0
Teleop2.8
End0.5
blue by 5.3
9994
#16
12.60.6
11.712.2
Auto3.7
Teleop8.1
End0.8