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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions653302040801001206833

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.70.7
37.538.3
Auto16.4
Teleop24.4
End1.9
red by 20.1
22.70.4
21.921.6
Auto9.9
Teleop11.9
End0.9
Second
9997
#17Sur
6.51.2
6.37.5
Auto1.8
Teleop3.7
End1.0
blue by 5.2
11.70.7
7.06.3
Auto2.6
Teleop8.4
End0.7
Third
6902
#15
5.20.7
9.09.7
Auto0.6
Teleop3.2
End1.5
blue by 4.6
9110
#22Sur
9.80.5
10.09.5
Auto6.2
Teleop3.0
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned12%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed