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Red106
320139.0
500233.6
239930.4
Blue50
791726.1
96089.5
178135.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9979406012014010650

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+34Teleop
+56Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +31
15Coral scored#7
54Coral points25
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
6Processor points0
8Net points12
14Algae points12
68Total teleop37
Reef
8L4#3
4L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#10
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points0
106Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3201
#12
39.02.0
33.936.0
Auto5.7
Teleop22.7
End10.6
red by 3.5
1781
#22
35.62.3
37.535.2
Auto6.4
Teleop26.8
End2.3
Second
5002
#14
33.62.0
24.726.8
Auto6.1
Teleop23.5
End4.0
red by 7.5
7917
#25
26.12.3
22.320.0
Auto6.6
Teleop14.5
End5.0
Third
2399
#23
30.42.0
27.829.9
Auto4.6
Teleop21.4
End4.4
red by 20.8
9608
#30
9.52.3
12.810.4
Auto1.3
Teleop6.4
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed