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Red161
393764.9
642470.7
997113.8
Blue100
235739.5
504523.2
32341.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166110050150200250161100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+37Teleop
+59Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
7Coral scored#5
37Coral points23
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +23
14Coral scored#15
52Coral points55
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
24Processor points6
20Net points12
44Algae points18
96Total teleop73
Reef
9L4#7
5L3#5
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#24
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +61
2Foul points0
161Total score100

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.70.3
69.970.1
Auto16.3
Teleop43.2
End11.2
red by 29.0
323
#7
41.70.1
41.941.8
Auto7.1
Teleop30.3
End4.3
Second
64.90.3
64.164.3
Auto13.7
Teleop42.9
End8.3
red by 25.3
39.50.1
39.839.7
Auto9.1
Teleop29.1
End1.3
Third
9971
#10
13.80.3
13.513.8
Auto2.4
Teleop10.9
End0.6
blue by 9.4
23.20.1
23.423.2
Auto5.5
Teleop16.7
End1.0