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Red89
587613.3
998013.4
461367.8
Blue33
716311.6
1000218.8
861336.5
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113890501502002508933

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+52Teleop
+68Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +55
11Coral scored#1
40Coral points5
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
12Processor points0
8Net points0
20Algae points0
60Total teleop5
Reef
3L4#1
4L3#1
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
16Game pieces#2
BargeRed +16
20Cage & park4
20Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points12
89Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.80.2
69.168.9
Auto9.2
Teleop46.5
End12.0
red by 31.3
8613
#14
36.54.3
47.443.1
Auto8.3
Teleop22.7
End5.6
Second
9980
#23
13.40.4
8.17.7
Auto4.8
Teleop6.6
End2.2
blue by 5.5
18.84.8
22.818.0
Auto3.6
Teleop12.9
End2.2
Third
5876
#15
13.30.2
15.214.9
Auto4.2
Teleop5.3
End3.7
red by 1.7
7163
#27
11.64.8
15.510.7
Auto3.8
Teleop5.5
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsMissed70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsEarned