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Red103
564810.4
473923.4
461359.4
Blue64
647619.1
643416.9
472915.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9541020608012014016010364

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+21Teleop
+41Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave0
3Coral scored#2
16Coral points9
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +11
11Coral scored#9
40Coral points33
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
58Total teleop47
Reef
6L4#4
3L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#14
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points2
103Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.42.3
51.754.0
Auto13.6
Teleop34.2
End11.7
red by 40.3
6476
#22
19.12.0
15.417.4
Auto4.2
Teleop12.4
End2.5
Second
23.42.3
21.724.0
Auto5.7
Teleop13.1
End4.5
red by 6.4
6434
#24
16.91.9
15.417.2
Auto4.6
Teleop8.5
End3.9
Third
5648
#38
10.42.3
8.711.1
Auto1.7
Teleop6.5
End2.2
blue by 5.4
4729
#28
15.82.0
13.315.3
Auto2.0
Teleop14.2
End-0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed