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Red43
997922.5
999116.6
652412.7
Blue33
943312.9
99868.8
99850.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions622802040801001201401604333

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+8Teleop
+10Endgame
+10Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points6
12Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
6Coral scored#4
21Coral points13
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
25Total teleop17
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points0
43Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.50.1
21.421.3
Auto5.2
Teleop16.3
End1.0
red by 9.6
9433
#13
12.90.1
12.712.9
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End2.5
Second
16.60.2
15.415.2
Auto4.6
Teleop9.7
End2.3
red by 7.7
9986
#11
8.80.1
8.68.7
Auto4.5
Teleop3.1
End1.2
Third
6524
#25
12.70.2
11.611.4
Auto2.5
Teleop8.0
End2.2
red by 12.2
9985
#28
0.50.1
0.30.5
Auto0.1
Teleop-0.8
End1.3