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Red150
414627.5
300920.7
248642.7
Blue105
294523.3
247830.6
99115.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8681050150200250300350150105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+27Teleop
+45Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave0
3Coral scored#2
16Coral points12
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +23
19Coral scored#19
70Coral points67
4Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
24Processor points12
16Net points8
40Algae points20
110Total teleop87
Reef
7L4#7
7L3#5
6L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#25
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
0Foul points0
150Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.74.3
29.734.0
Auto10.2
Teleop23.8
End8.7
red by 12.1
2478
#12
30.62.3
27.930.1
Auto5.2
Teleop24.1
End1.3
Second
4146
#21
27.57.1
20.127.2
Auto3.1
Teleop23.0
End1.4
red by 4.2
2945
#30
23.32.1
22.424.5
Auto4.0
Teleop17.8
End1.5
Third
3009
#16
20.74.3
20.024.2
Auto3.3
Teleop10.9
End6.5
red by 5.3
991
#20
15.41.4
17.218.5
Auto2.9
Teleop9.4
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsMissed