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Red190
502661.8
49867.0
905923.8
Blue59
733321.5
284011.8
121223.9
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14557010020019059

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+107Teleop
+119Endgame
+131Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
3Leave0
8Coral scored#2
41Coral points9
44Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +72
21Coral scored#8
76Coral points28
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
18Processor points6
16Net points4
34Algae points10
110Total teleop38
Reef
14L4#2
7L3#4
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#12
BargeRed +12
24Cage & park12
24Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +131
12Foul points0
190Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
498
#4
67.02.6
59.461.9
Auto17.8
Teleop42.1
End7.1
red by 43.1
1212
#17
23.90.9
26.025.1
Auto2.8
Teleop14.8
End6.4
Second
61.82.6
51.053.6
Auto20.7
Teleop33.3
End7.8
red by 40.4
7333
#35
21.50.9
20.819.9
Auto3.6
Teleop16.0
End1.9
Third
9059
#27
23.82.6
17.720.3
Auto5.2
Teleop15.2
End3.4
red by 12.0
2840
#22
11.81.5
15.113.6
Auto1.6
Teleop7.2
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsMissed