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Red96
101112.6
418328.7
240351.0
Blue55
775510.0
237538.6
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions985301502009655

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
+23Teleop
+29Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousBlue +13
9Leave3
1Coral scored#5
4Coral points23
13Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +36
9Coral scored#4
33Coral points13
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
12Processor points0
12Net points8
24Algae points8
57Total teleop21
Reef
5L4#4
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#11
BargeRed +6
14Cage & park8
14Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
12Foul points0
96Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.00.0
48.848.8
Auto8.4
Teleop37.4
End5.3
red by 12.4
38.60.1
32.432.5
Auto10.7
Teleop26.2
End1.7
Second
28.70.0
27.727.6
Auto2.9
Teleop24.3
End1.5
red by 18.7
10.00.1
10.010.2
Auto4.2
Teleop3.0
End2.8
Third
12.60.0
8.28.2
Auto2.0
Teleop9.0
End1.7
red by 3.7
9.00.1
10.610.7
Auto4.0
Teleop3.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed