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Red110
6986.6
418330.8
240358.0
Blue32
905913.7
38534.4
647924.0
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10444015020011032

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+66Teleop
+80Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave0
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
16Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +53
17Coral scored#5
62Coral points19
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
80Total teleop27
Reef
6L4#2
7L3#2
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#8
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
0Foul points2
110Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.01.2
56.858.0
Auto10.9
Teleop39.3
End7.7
red by 33.9
24.01.3
27.426.1
Auto4.2
Teleop19.1
End0.7
Second
4183
#21
30.81.2
27.829.0
Auto3.6
Teleop25.1
End2.1
red by 17.0
9059
#28
13.71.3
13.111.9
Auto3.6
Teleop8.2
End2.0
Third
698
#13
6.61.2
7.28.4
Auto3.1
Teleop2.8
End0.8
red by 2.2
3853
#30
4.41.3
8.87.5
Auto0.8
Teleop2.4
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed