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Red192
404839.4
8887.0
271345.7
Blue114
287761.3
226221.4
17527.2
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185103050150200250300192114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+62Teleop
+72Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave3
8Coral scored#5
41Coral points27
41Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +51
22Coral scored#12
79Coral points42
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
121Total teleop70
Reef
14L4#8
7L3#6
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
39Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
6Foul points0
192Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88
#2
87.01.4
81.582.8
Auto19.9
Teleop56.0
End11.2
red by 25.7
2877
#32
61.30.3
58.959.2
Auto17.6
Teleop37.2
End6.5
Second
2713
#28
45.71.4
41.743.1
Auto7.5
Teleop30.4
End7.9
red by 18.6
175
#33
27.20.3
28.929.2
Auto5.1
Teleop19.4
End2.7
Third
4048
#26
39.41.4
37.338.7
Auto8.3
Teleop23.1
End8.0
red by 18.0
2262
#62
21.40.3
15.916.2
Auto3.3
Teleop15.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
63%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed