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Red66
1052714.5
636427.3
929215.1
Blue28
767310.4
97196.7
768819.9
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions714302060801001206628

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+22Teleop
+32Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +16
8Coral scored#3
28Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
32Total teleop16
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#5
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
6Foul points0
66Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6364
#10
27.30.0
25.525.6
Auto5.8
Teleop18.3
End3.3
red by 7.4
7688
#14
19.91.4
19.918.5
Auto3.4
Teleop11.0
End5.4
Second
9292
#20
15.10.0
17.017.0
Auto4.6
Teleop8.4
End2.1
red by 4.7
7673
#35
10.41.4
13.712.2
Auto2.8
Teleop4.4
End3.2
Third
14.50.0
17.217.2
Auto4.2
Teleop7.5
End2.8
red by 7.9
9719
#41
6.71.4
7.25.8
Auto1.3
Teleop2.9
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed