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Red111
756545.0
948434.8
960213.3
Blue94
908527.3
946120.9
945826.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105775015011194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+11Teleop
+25Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave0
7Coral scored#3
33Coral points13
33Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +9
13Coral scored#14
46Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
64Total teleop73
Reef
8L4#5
4L3#5
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#22
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points8
111Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.00.4
44.845.1
Auto6.4
Teleop30.3
End8.3
red by 17.7
9085
#12
27.30.2
27.127.3
Auto6.5
Teleop18.7
End2.2
Second
34.80.4
34.634.9
Auto7.5
Teleop22.5
End4.7
red by 8.4
9458
#21
26.40.2
26.226.4
Auto4.6
Teleop20.5
End1.3
Third
9602
#25
13.30.4
13.213.5
Auto4.9
Teleop7.6
End0.8
blue by 7.6
9461
#16
20.90.2
20.720.9
Auto3.5
Teleop15.0
End2.4