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Red116
116039.1
528535.6
68734.6
Blue51
392513.2
607226.9
399323.6
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1136005010015020011651

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+63Teleop
+71Endgame
+65Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +49
15Coral scored#7
53Coral points26
3Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
18Processor points0
8Net points4
26Algae points4
79Total teleop30
Reef
7L4#4
5L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#9
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +65
0Foul points6
116Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1160
#25
39.11.5
30.732.1
Auto8.8
Teleop26.4
End3.8
red by 12.1
6072
#23
26.90.8
26.325.5
Auto5.2
Teleop19.5
End2.2
Second
5285
#17
35.61.5
33.835.3
Auto8.2
Teleop24.1
End3.2
red by 11.9
3993
#24
23.61.3
18.317.0
Auto4.8
Teleop15.1
End3.7
Third
687
#28
34.61.5
29.731.2
Auto7.5
Teleop22.6
End4.5
red by 21.3
3925
#40
13.20.8
12.211.4
Auto2.8
Teleop7.4
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed