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Red225
945239.5
49872.9
359100.6
Blue240
432262.5
699585.1
312857.9
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions231188100150200250300225240

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+13
Endgame+15
Fouls+15
Autonomouslevel
9Leave0
6Coral scored#7
28Coral points37
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +13
27Coral scored#39
96Coral points139
6Processor algae#3
8Net algae#5
36Processor points18
32Net points20
68Algae points38
164Total teleop177
Reef
13L4#15
11L3#12
3L2#8
6L1 · trough#11
47Game pieces#54
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points0
225Total score240

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#1
100.61.2
98.9100.1
Auto22.7
Teleop65.7
End12.2
red by 15.5
6995
#11
85.14.2
74.678.8
Auto18.8
Teleop56.2
End10.1
Second
498
#3
72.91.2
70.671.8
Auto15.0
Teleop47.9
End10.0
red by 10.5
4322
#22
62.54.2
54.358.5
Auto12.7
Teleop48.7
End1.1
Third
9452
#30
39.51.2
38.039.2
Auto5.7
Teleop29.2
End4.5
blue by 18.4
3128
#10
57.94.2
47.952.1
Auto8.8
Teleop38.2
End10.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
96%Coral oddsEarned68%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned85%Barge oddsEarned