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Red241
196735.1
167891.3
594079.2
Blue166
415945.9
661945.5
325642.8
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions242131050100150200300350241166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+63Teleop
+75Endgame
+75Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave9
10Coral scored#3
48Coral points17
54Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +35
30Coral scored#26
107Coral points92
3Processor algae#3
9Net algae#4
18Processor points18
36Net points16
54Algae points34
161Total teleop126
Reef
12L4#12
14L3#5
9L2#7
5L1 · trough#5
52Game pieces#36
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +75
0Foul points0
241Total score166

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.30.7
90.891.5
Auto20.6
Teleop60.9
End9.8
red by 45.4
4159
#20
45.90.6
45.345.9
Auto13.0
Teleop30.8
End2.1
Second
79.20.7
78.479.1
Auto18.4
Teleop51.3
End9.5
red by 33.7
6619
#11
45.50.6
44.945.5
Auto5.3
Teleop35.6
End4.6
Third
1967
#26
35.10.7
34.335.0
Auto8.8
Teleop26.5
End-0.1
blue by 7.6
3256
#27
42.80.6
42.242.8
Auto8.7
Teleop29.3
End4.8