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Red78
248923.3
85225.6
510426.3
Blue45
325653.9
64922.6
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions881030204060801201401607845

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+9Teleop
+11Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave3
1Coral scored#4
3Coral points20
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +23
7Coral scored#3
25Coral points10
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
12Processor points0
4Net points8
16Algae points8
41Total teleop18
Reef
2L4#3
3L3#1
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
22Foul points0
78Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5104
#25
26.31.6
27.926.3
Auto3.4
Teleop19.1
End3.8
blue by 27.6
3256
#17
53.92.9
54.551.6
Auto12.9
Teleop32.9
End8.1
Second
852
#20
25.61.6
27.225.6
Auto5.2
Teleop19.4
End1.0
red by 3.0
649
#36
22.62.9
25.522.6
Auto7.3
Teleop13.4
End1.9
Third
2489
#26
23.31.6
24.923.3
Auto5.0
Teleop16.9
End1.4
red by 18.9
4.43.5
7.94.4
Auto1.7
Teleop3.3
End-0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsMissed54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
37%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsMissed