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Red127
545828.7
213539.5
207333.1
Blue194
167148.0
452264.5
220434.8
12%Model gave it88%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9815150200250127194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+65
Endgame+61
Fouls+67
Autonomouslevel
9Leave6
6Coral scored#6
28Coral points31
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +65
17Coral scored#30
60Coral points109
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
78Total teleop143
Reef
7L4#13
7L3#12
5L2#8
4L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#43
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Penalties & totalBlue +67
6Foul points12
127Total score194

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.50.5
39.039.5
Auto13.5
Teleop24.4
End1.6
blue by 25.0
64.51.0
61.662.6
Auto13.2
Teleop48.0
End3.4
Second
2073
#11
33.10.5
32.633.1
Auto10.8
Teleop19.6
End2.7
blue by 14.9
1671
#10
48.01.0
45.146.1
Auto11.6
Teleop29.8
End6.6
Third
5458
#20
28.70.5
28.328.7
Auto3.8
Teleop22.4
End2.5
blue by 6.1
2204
#16
34.81.0
31.932.9
Auto10.3
Teleop21.4
End3.1