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Red140
508923.7
884017.9
908465.2
Blue181
876837.1
207350.3
432256.3
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8814450100200140181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+29
Endgame+41
Fouls+41
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave9
7Coral scored#5
33Coral points23
36Total auto32
TeleoperatedBlue +33
13Coral scored#23
48Coral points83
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
18Processor points12
24Net points28
42Algae points40
90Total teleop123
Reef
8L4#13
4L3#7
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
0Foul points0
140Total score181

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9084
#10
65.23.5
55.358.8
Auto19.6
Teleop40.9
End4.8
red by 9.0
4322
#12
56.33.3
53.656.9
Auto14.1
Teleop37.4
End4.7
Second
5089
#34
23.73.5
20.924.4
Auto6.2
Teleop15.8
End1.7
blue by 26.6
2073
#16
50.33.3
42.846.1
Auto12.0
Teleop34.8
End3.4
Third
8840
#39
17.93.5
10.714.2
Auto3.8
Teleop12.6
End1.5
blue by 19.3
8768
#31
37.13.3
34.437.7
Auto6.1
Teleop29.0
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed29%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsEarned