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Red169
603669.5
264329.0
213543.7
Blue72
970617.6
70129.8
884017.9
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16361010015020025016972

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+95Teleop
+99Endgame
+97Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave9
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +74
30Coral scored#8
109Coral points29
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
12Processor points18
12Net points12
24Algae points30
133Total teleop59
Reef
12L4#2
14L3#3
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
40Game pieces#14
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +97
0Foul points2
169Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6036
#13
69.51.5
66.868.3
Auto18.8
Teleop49.2
End1.6
red by 39.8
701
#36
29.80.5
30.730.2
Auto3.8
Teleop24.8
End1.2
Second
2135
#17
43.71.5
42.744.2
Auto13.7
Teleop27.6
End2.4
red by 25.8
8840
#39
17.90.5
16.115.5
Auto3.8
Teleop12.6
End1.5
Third
2643
#26
29.01.5
26.227.6
Auto2.3
Teleop25.2
End1.4
red by 11.4
9706
#37
17.60.7
20.019.3
Auto3.8
Teleop12.0
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
51%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed