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Red126
432256.3
545841.9
665742.9
Blue191
97171.6
958432.6
167159.8
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149185100200250126191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+75
Endgame+63
Fouls+65
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave3
5Coral scored#7
27Coral points36
36Total auto39
TeleoperatedBlue +72
12Coral scored#29
42Coral points104
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
6Processor points12
16Net points20
22Algae points32
64Total teleop136
Reef
7L4#11
5L3#8
3L2#12
2L1 · trough#5
22Game pieces#43
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +65
0Foul points2
126Total score191

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4322
#12
56.30.4
56.656.3
Auto14.1
Teleop37.4
End4.7
blue by 15.3
971
#7
71.60.5
71.772.3
Auto9.7
Teleop55.2
End6.7
Second
42.90.4
43.342.9
Auto11.2
Teleop26.9
End4.8
blue by 16.9
59.80.5
59.960.5
Auto16.1
Teleop37.4
End6.3
Third
5458
#20
41.90.4
42.241.9
Auto9.2
Teleop29.4
End3.2
red by 9.3
9584
#25
32.60.5
32.733.3
Auto8.2
Teleop16.8
End7.6