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Red188
940867.0
512425.6
119770.8
Blue104
784041.2
432245.5
96816.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1789850150200250300188104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+22Auto
+56Teleop
+78Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +22
3Leave0
10Coral scored#6
51Coral points32
54Total auto32
TeleoperatedRed +34
17Coral scored#12
62Coral points42
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#3
18Processor points12
20Net points12
38Algae points24
100Total teleop66
Reef
9L4#5
7L3#6
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#23
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +84
8Foul points2
188Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.80.5
70.270.8
Auto20.4
Teleop42.4
End8.0
red by 25.3
4322
#10
45.50.0
45.545.5
Auto9.4
Teleop34.4
End1.7
Second
67.00.4
66.667.0
Auto18.3
Teleop41.9
End6.8
red by 25.8
41.20.0
41.241.2
Auto7.7
Teleop27.4
End6.0
Third
5124
#24
25.60.5
25.125.6
Auto5.3
Teleop17.9
End2.4
red by 8.9
968
#26
16.70.0
16.716.7
Auto4.0
Teleop8.8
End3.9