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Red100
97229.5
541940.4
68848.2
Blue99
741323.8
58161.1
397017.0
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8412905010015020010099

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+17
Endgame+7
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave3
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points13
20Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +21
11Coral scored#15
40Coral points55
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
6Processor points12
12Net points12
18Algae points24
58Total teleop79
Reef
5L4#8
4L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
8Foul points0
100Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.40.4
40.040.4
Auto5.9
Teleop28.2
End6.3
blue by 20.7
581
#2
61.11.7
59.758.0
Auto11.9
Teleop39.6
End9.6
Second
972
#16
29.50.4
27.628.0
Auto4.9
Teleop14.8
End9.8
red by 5.6
7413
#20
23.81.7
27.525.8
Auto5.9
Teleop16.1
End1.8
Third
6884
#35
8.20.4
8.59.0
Auto1.8
Teleop5.9
End0.5
blue by 8.8
3970
#33
17.01.7
21.119.3
Auto3.4
Teleop12.6
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned60%Barge oddsMissed