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Red136
97347.1
153847.3
427627.4
Blue53
350120.4
302031.2
461914.3
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12358010015020013653

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+91Teleop
+81Endgame
+83Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +74
19Coral scored#6
69Coral points23
2Processor algae#0
6Net algae#2
12Processor points0
24Net points8
36Algae points8
105Total teleop31
Reef
11L4#3
5L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +83
2Foul points0
136Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1538
#10
47.32.1
41.743.8
Auto8.6
Teleop37.4
End1.3
red by 16.1
3020
#17
31.21.9
17.615.6
Auto3.2
Teleop20.2
End7.8
Second
973
#7
47.12.1
38.540.6
Auto12.9
Teleop28.2
End6.0
red by 26.7
3501
#34
20.41.9
24.522.5
Auto7.9
Teleop10.1
End2.5
Third
4276
#29
27.42.1
20.722.8
Auto8.2
Teleop17.2
End2.0
red by 13.1
4619
#40
14.31.9
14.212.3
Auto5.1
Teleop6.1
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsEarned