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Red121
441559.4
271029.1
166124.0
Blue61
887120.1
350120.4
715739.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11390608010012014016012161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+24Teleop
+48Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +3
10Coral scored#9
37Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
47Total teleop44
Reef
8L4#4
3L3#3
2L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#12
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +60
18Foul points6
121Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.40.1
51.751.5
Auto17.0
Teleop33.9
End8.5
red by 19.6
39.73.4
42.739.4
Auto6.9
Teleop28.2
End4.6
Second
2710
#16
29.10.1
25.425.3
Auto5.5
Teleop17.7
End5.8
red by 8.7
3501
#34
20.43.4
23.920.5
Auto7.9
Teleop10.1
End2.5
Third
1661
#23
24.00.1
27.127.0
Auto6.8
Teleop14.3
End2.9
red by 3.9
8871
#44
20.13.4
18.615.2
Auto2.0
Teleop14.3
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsMissed