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Red154
196745.1
469840.9
325656.3
Blue91
912520.4
265936.8
85233.0
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions150895010020015491

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+47Teleop
+57Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave0
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
40Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +23
19Coral scored#11
68Coral points41
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
88Total teleop65
Reef
7L4#6
9L3#2
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
12Foul points6
154Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.30.2
47.247.4
Auto11.2
Teleop34.7
End10.4
red by 19.5
2659
#25
36.80.6
36.235.6
Auto7.3
Teleop28.5
End1.0
Second
45.10.2
41.341.5
Auto9.3
Teleop34.2
End1.6
red by 12.2
852
#16
33.00.6
33.332.7
Auto5.9
Teleop25.5
End1.6
Third
4698
#22
40.90.2
42.542.6
Auto15.3
Teleop22.0
End3.6
red by 20.4
9125
#31
20.40.6
16.415.8
Auto5.4
Teleop12.5
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed