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Red67
491918.2
607224.1
973014.5
Blue82
498417.4
157220.3
364718.8
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions766420401001206782

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+9
Endgame+11
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +2
11Coral scored#8
38Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#5
6Processor points6
8Net points20
14Algae points26
52Total teleop54
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
2Foul points6
67Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6072
#43
24.11.2
25.224.1
Auto3.9
Teleop19.0
End1.1
red by 3.7
1572
#16
20.30.5
19.820.3
Auto6.9
Teleop11.6
End1.9
Second
4919
#28
18.21.2
19.318.2
Auto3.8
Teleop11.6
End2.8
blue by 0.6
3647
#23
18.80.4
18.318.7
Auto5.1
Teleop9.6
End4.1
Third
9730
#47
14.51.2
15.614.5
Auto4.5
Teleop9.3
End0.6
blue by 2.9
4984
#39
17.40.4
15.515.9
Auto1.9
Teleop14.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsMissed