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Red159
803367.6
415941.0
581740.9
Blue84
758921.0
885246.5
466923.2
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169925015020025015984

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+61Teleop
+75Endgame
+75Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
8Coral scored#3
38Coral points16
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +33
18Coral scored#13
63Coral points46
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
12Processor points12
24Net points8
36Algae points20
99Total teleop66
Reef
6L4#8
9L3#4
7L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#20
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +75
0Foul points0
159Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.60.1
67.767.9
Auto20.5
Teleop39.3
End7.8
red by 21.0
46.51.5
41.940.4
Auto10.6
Teleop34.1
End1.8
Second
41.00.1
37.838.0
Auto10.4
Teleop28.0
End2.6
red by 17.8
4669
#25
23.21.5
23.121.6
Auto4.9
Teleop16.2
End2.1
Third
5817
#22
40.90.1
40.140.2
Auto9.9
Teleop28.3
End2.8
red by 19.9
7589
#33
21.00.9
21.420.5
Auto3.0
Teleop17.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsEarned20%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed