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Red129
519968.7
68728.5
441946.0
Blue61
427627.9
1102413.4
622020.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16850010015020025030012961

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+54Teleop
+62Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points16
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +61
21Coral scored#6
76Coral points21
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
90Total teleop29
Reef
11L4#2
6L3#3
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#11
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +68
6Foul points0
129Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5199
#15
68.71.4
69.668.2
Auto11.0
Teleop46.7
End10.9
red by 40.8
4276
#37
27.90.1
28.027.9
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End7.0
Second
4419
#12
46.01.4
45.544.2
Auto7.6
Teleop30.5
End7.9
red by 25.2
6220
#21
20.80.1
20.920.8
Auto5.4
Teleop11.7
End3.8
Third
687
#22
28.51.4
28.327.0
Auto5.3
Teleop17.8
End5.4
red by 15.1
13.40.1
13.513.4
Auto3.5
Teleop7.6
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned29%Barge oddsMissed