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Red190
114832.3
35994.2
138872.3
Blue57
1018318.7
265939.6
39941.6
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions239945015020030035040019057

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+40Auto
+119Teleop
+131Endgame
+133Fouls
AutonomousRed +40
9Leave3
7Coral scored#0
34Coral points0
43Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +79
28Coral scored#9
101Coral points32
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
129Total teleop50
Reef
12L4#2
9L3#3
8L2#3
6L1 · trough#1
41Game pieces#13
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +133
2Foul points0
190Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#4
94.22.0
96.694.6
Auto18.6
Teleop63.4
End12.3
red by 52.6
399
#18
41.64.1
47.443.3
Auto9.1
Teleop28.2
End4.3
Second
72.32.0
65.963.9
Auto15.3
Teleop50.3
End6.7
red by 32.6
2659
#16
39.64.1
34.130.1
Auto5.7
Teleop33.6
End0.3
Third
1148
#25
32.32.0
43.141.1
Auto5.7
Teleop21.9
End4.7
red by 13.7
18.75.0
21.516.5
Auto2.5
Teleop7.4
End8.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
81%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsEarned