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Red71
364720.0
351246.3
441946.5
Blue68
800537.4
528536.4
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123690501001502007168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+3Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave3
4Coral scored#3
18Coral points13
27Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +8
6Coral scored#7
20Coral points26
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#3
6Processor points0
4Net points12
10Algae points12
30Total teleop38
Reef
2L4#3
4L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
71Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4419
#13
46.52.4
43.941.5
Auto9.3
Teleop28.7
End8.5
red by 9.0
8005
#10
37.40.1
31.131.0
Auto9.9
Teleop22.0
End5.5
Second
46.32.4
46.644.2
Auto7.7
Teleop29.9
End8.6
red by 9.8
5285
#22
36.40.1
28.928.8
Auto12.3
Teleop20.0
End4.1
Third
3647
#21
20.02.4
16.714.3
Auto6.1
Teleop11.5
End2.4
red by 13.4
6.50.1
9.59.4
Auto1.1
Teleop4.7
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsMissed57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed34%Barge oddsMissed