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Red207
441472.7
448178.5
580528.7
Blue158
97155.0
407936.7
58927.3
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19210650150250207158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+43Teleop
+45Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave6
8Coral scored#4
38Coral points20
44Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +25
22Coral scored#19
79Coral points68
3Processor algae#4
9Net algae#4
18Processor points24
36Net points16
54Algae points40
133Total teleop108
Reef
12L4#9
9L3#6
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#31
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +49
4Foul points0
207Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.50.6
77.978.5
Auto19.7
Teleop49.6
End9.2
red by 23.4
971
#9
55.01.3
53.855.0
Auto7.3
Teleop40.7
End7.0
Second
72.70.6
72.172.7
Auto15.7
Teleop48.1
End8.8
red by 36.0
4079
#22
36.70.9
35.736.7
Auto11.4
Teleop23.6
End1.7
Third
5805
#49
28.70.6
28.228.7
Auto4.4
Teleop18.5
End5.8
red by 1.4
589
#26
27.31.3
26.127.3
Auto6.1
Teleop13.1
End8.1