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Red103
325625.5
421.2
166128.8
Blue51
513624.1
40196.0
374913.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7977405060709010011010351

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+56Teleop
+54Endgame
+52Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +56
13Coral scored#6
48Coral points20
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#1
18Processor points6
20Net points4
38Algae points10
86Total teleop30
Reef
6L4#2
4L3#3
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
6Foul points8
103Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1661
#20
28.81.5
22.724.2
Auto8.4
Teleop17.3
End3.1
red by 4.7
5136
#27
24.13.4
27.023.6
Auto3.2
Teleop18.8
End2.1
Second
3256
#19
25.52.5
23.325.8
Auto6.7
Teleop17.6
End1.2
red by 11.8
3749
#35
13.73.4
25.321.8
Auto2.8
Teleop7.8
End3.1
Third
4
#18
21.21.5
22.323.8
Auto2.7
Teleop16.8
End1.7
red by 15.2
4019
#30
6.03.4
16.513.1
Auto2.1
Teleop2.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsMissed