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Red160
281362.0
908465.9
715743.4
Blue157
97173.8
603657.0
204661.2
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1702190100300400500160157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+1Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points17
27Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +3
22Coral scored#19
79Coral points68
3Processor algae#4
5Net algae#7
18Processor points24
20Net points28
38Algae points52
117Total teleop120
Reef
11L4#10
6L3#5
5L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#33
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
160Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9084
#18
65.90.6
70.269.6
Auto17.8
Teleop40.5
End7.5
blue by 8.0
971
#32
73.83.0
75.172.1
Auto15.1
Teleop50.6
End8.1
Second
2813
#26
62.00.6
57.456.8
Auto8.4
Teleop45.2
End8.4
red by 0.8
2046
#41
61.23.0
68.365.4
Auto12.6
Teleop43.0
End5.6
Third
7157
#27
43.40.6
41.641.0
Auto8.5
Teleop29.6
End5.4
blue by 13.6
6036
#34
57.03.0
57.954.9
Auto13.2
Teleop40.0
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
51%Coral oddsEarned83%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsMissed81%Barge oddsEarned