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Red254
603657.0
449980.6
949677.0
Blue222
84662.4
119778.0
204661.2
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions230214140160180200240260280254222

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+20Teleop
+30Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave0
10Coral scored#9
52Coral points44
58Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +6
31Coral scored#30
112Coral points108
4Processor algae#3
8Net algae#9
24Processor points18
32Net points36
56Algae points54
168Total teleop162
Reef
11L4#13
14L3#13
9L2#5
7L1 · trough#8
53Game pieces#51
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +32
2Foul points0
254Total score222

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.60.6
79.880.5
Auto15.3
Teleop53.7
End11.5
red by 2.6
1197
#30
78.00.2
77.878.0
Auto21.5
Teleop48.1
End8.4
Second
9496
#20
77.00.6
76.276.8
Auto18.3
Teleop51.6
End7.1
red by 14.6
846
#29
62.40.2
62.262.4
Auto15.0
Teleop41.4
End5.9
Third
6036
#34
57.00.6
56.857.4
Auto13.2
Teleop40.0
End3.8
blue by 4.2
2046
#41
61.20.2
61.061.2
Auto12.6
Teleop43.0
End5.6