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Red147
686329.1
374851.4
190845.9
Blue133
859270.6
88860.6
450529.0
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11114750200250147133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+8
+14Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
0Leave3
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points30
27Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +2
21Coral scored#16
76Coral points58
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
6Processor points18
12Net points20
18Algae points38
94Total teleop96
Reef
11L4#8
5L3#7
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#30
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points0
147Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.43.0
41.144.1
Auto9.8
Teleop31.7
End9.9
blue by 19.2
70.60.0
61.661.6
Auto14.9
Teleop47.7
End7.9
Second
1908
#23
45.93.0
36.239.1
Auto9.9
Teleop29.3
End6.7
blue by 14.6
888
#15
60.60.0
46.746.8
Auto17.5
Teleop40.5
End2.6
Third
6863
#41
29.13.0
25.428.3
Auto7.3
Teleop21.9
End-0.1
red by 0.1
4505
#46
29.00.0
24.424.4
Auto8.1
Teleop18.2
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned67%Barge oddsMissed