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Red196
327674.8
472866.6
753018.2
Blue138
302629.6
617535.1
702868.0
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17714450100200250300196138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+48Teleop
+58Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave9
3Coral scored#4
14Coral points18
23Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +52
27Coral scored#20
97Coral points73
3Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
18Processor points6
32Net points16
50Algae points22
147Total teleop95
Reef
10L4#6
7L3#9
7L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#29
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points0
196Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3276
Unranked
74.80.9
72.973.9
Auto6.5
Teleop57.7
End10.5
red by 6.8
7028
Unranked
68.00.1
68.168.2
Auto11.1
Teleop47.9
End9.0
Second
4728
Unranked
66.60.9
64.865.7
Auto10.6
Teleop45.2
End10.8
red by 31.5
6175
Unranked
35.10.1
35.135.2
Auto5.7
Teleop27.4
End2.0
Third
7530
Unranked
18.20.9
16.417.3
Auto5.5
Teleop9.4
End3.3
blue by 11.4
3026
Unranked
29.60.1
29.729.8
Auto6.1
Teleop19.5
End4.1