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Red80
958627.7
955219.5
450122.1
Blue97
741526.4
455029.8
748526.6
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions677502040601001201408097

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+9
Endgame+9
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave3
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points13
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +2
13Coral scored#11
45Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
6Processor points6
12Net points20
18Algae points26
63Total teleop65
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#3
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
17Game pieces#20
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
2Foul points10
80Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9586
#17
27.70.2
19.519.7
Auto2.5
Teleop23.2
End2.0
blue by 2.2
4550
#24
29.80.4
31.231.6
Auto4.5
Teleop24.0
End1.4
Second
4501
#45
22.10.2
22.122.3
Auto6.8
Teleop14.5
End0.8
blue by 4.5
7485
#28
26.60.5
18.519.1
Auto4.8
Teleop19.7
End2.2
Third
9552
#41
19.50.2
19.619.8
Auto3.9
Teleop13.7
End2.0
blue by 6.9
7415
#36
26.40.4
19.519.9
Auto3.9
Teleop19.9
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed16%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed