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Red120
786943.9
55829.8
15535.5
Blue114
1024519.3
1013326.6
712752.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11910750150200120114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+4
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points13
19Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +4
16Coral scored#16
57Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#6
12Processor points6
16Net points24
28Algae points30
85Total teleop89
Reef
8L4#6
5L3#4
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
120Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7869
#11
43.91.2
42.443.6
Auto5.0
Teleop37.0
End1.8
blue by 8.4
52.31.6
49.751.3
Auto8.8
Teleop41.8
End1.7
Second
155
#18
35.51.2
33.034.2
Auto8.3
Teleop23.3
End3.9
red by 8.9
26.61.6
22.624.2
Auto4.5
Teleop19.7
End2.4
Third
558
#5
29.81.2
26.727.9
Auto4.1
Teleop21.3
End4.3
red by 10.5
19.31.6
17.218.9
Auto6.1
Teleop11.2
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed