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Red139
182537.3
198671.5
392848.3
Blue122
171044.5
93532.2
176432.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions175109050150200250300139122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+1Teleop
+15Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave9
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points7
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +20
16Coral scored#17
58Coral points60
2Processor algae#3
1Net algae#4
12Processor points18
4Net points16
16Algae points34
74Total teleop94
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#4
3L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#25
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +17
2Foul points0
139Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.50.5
72.371.8
Auto17.6
Teleop46.6
End7.3
red by 27.0
1710
#21
44.50.3
44.244.5
Auto12.9
Teleop28.7
End3.0
Second
48.30.5
49.048.5
Auto9.2
Teleop30.4
End8.8
red by 15.6
1764
#33
32.70.3
32.432.7
Auto8.6
Teleop22.5
End1.6
Third
1825
#15
37.30.5
38.137.6
Auto9.7
Teleop23.7
End3.9
red by 5.1
935
#9
32.20.3
31.932.2
Auto3.2
Teleop25.0
End4.0