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Red64
215215.2
765211.1
999220.8
Blue114
152317.8
5958.4
999722.1
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2510005015020025064114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+40
Endgame+50
Fouls+50
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points13
6Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +33
8Coral scored#18
28Coral points65
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
46Total teleop79
Reef
3L4#8
2L3#5
2L2#6
1L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +50
6Foul points6
64Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9992
#16
20.81.3
16.818.1
Auto1.2
Teleop15.6
End4.1
blue by 37.6
59
#3
58.41.3
55.656.9
Auto5.4
Teleop42.4
End10.6
Second
2152
#12
15.20.9
13.914.7
Auto2.8
Teleop9.3
End3.1
blue by 6.9
9997
#20
22.12.1
13.315.3
Auto2.9
Teleop16.5
End2.7
Third
7652
#14
11.10.9
11.612.4
Auto3.9
Teleop6.1
End1.0
blue by 6.8
1523
#18
17.81.3
16.818.1
Auto3.6
Teleop11.0
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed78%Barge oddsEarned