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Red69
279715.5
155718.2
581618.5
Blue54
1021111.2
402415.9
967028.3
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions615801001502006954

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+19Teleop
+21Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +16
8Coral scored#7
30Coral points26
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
48Total teleop32
Reef
4L4#4
2L3#2
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
6Foul points12
69Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5816
#39
18.50.8
20.820.0
Auto3.1
Teleop14.1
End1.3
blue by 9.8
9670
#28
28.32.9
17.114.2
Auto5.1
Teleop22.9
End0.2
Second
1557
#22
18.20.8
16.215.4
Auto2.7
Teleop13.6
End1.8
red by 2.3
4024
#13
15.92.9
16.513.6
Auto3.6
Teleop8.3
End4.0
Third
2797
#30
15.50.8
16.115.2
Auto1.6
Teleop11.8
End2.1
red by 4.3
11.23.7
11.214.9
Auto2.1
Teleop7.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsEarned