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Red178
248658.9
552646.6
881742.2
Blue120
904012.5
977918.1
5966.5
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1449950200250178120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+76Teleop
+64Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +62
29Coral scored#18
105Coral points65
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
18Processor points12
28Net points12
46Algae points24
151Total teleop89
Reef
12L4#5
9L3#8
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
42Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points6
178Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2486
#12
58.92.9
49.152.1
Auto14.3
Teleop35.0
End9.6
blue by 7.6
59
#8
66.50.8
59.660.5
Auto6.0
Teleop51.3
End9.1
Second
46.62.9
38.641.5
Auto8.6
Teleop36.2
End1.7
red by 28.5
9779
#31
18.11.3
13.715.1
Auto3.7
Teleop12.4
End2.0
Third
8817
#23
42.22.9
35.138.0
Auto5.7
Teleop33.9
End2.7
red by 29.7
9040
#32
12.51.3
16.718.0
Auto2.1
Teleop8.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsMissed73%Barge oddsEarned