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Red170
560829.6
634053.8
602345.2
Blue139
884921.9
411239.4
529333.9
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1429750200170139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
+23Teleop
+37Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousBlue +13
3Leave0
3Coral scored#6
13Coral points29
16Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +36
24Coral scored#18
86Coral points64
4Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
24Processor points18
28Net points20
52Algae points38
138Total teleop102
Reef
12L4#8
7L3#5
6L2#7
2L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#32
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points6
170Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.82.5
51.053.5
Auto10.0
Teleop35.3
End8.6
red by 14.4
4112
#45
39.42.2
37.339.6
Auto9.3
Teleop28.9
End1.2
Second
6023
#32
45.22.5
39.942.4
Auto6.3
Teleop38.2
End0.7
red by 11.3
5293
#17
33.92.2
33.735.9
Auto8.9
Teleop22.8
End2.2
Third
5608
#30
29.62.5
30.232.7
Auto4.0
Teleop23.5
End2.1
red by 7.8
8849
#38
21.92.2
17.119.4
Auto4.4
Teleop15.7
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
22%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed