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Red107
947724.2
857717.5
164845.7
Blue88
411232.2
692525.6
363524.4
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions727820406010012014010788

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+9Teleop
+19Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave3
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points9
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +5
13Coral scored#14
45Coral points50
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
6Processor points12
24Net points8
30Algae points20
75Total teleop70
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#5
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points0
107Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.72.6
35.838.4
Auto9.6
Teleop28.8
End7.3
red by 13.5
4112
#14
32.21.1
26.527.6
Auto6.7
Teleop23.7
End1.8
Second
9477
#10
24.22.6
18.921.5
Auto4.4
Teleop17.9
End1.9
blue by 1.4
6925
#21
25.61.7
23.625.2
Auto3.2
Teleop20.8
End1.6
Third
17.52.6
12.615.3
Auto2.1
Teleop13.2
End2.3
blue by 6.9
3635
#12
24.41.1
20.721.9
Auto4.0
Teleop18.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed