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Red222
591431.5
464657.5
170683.4
Blue138
753128.1
639139.9
162551.0
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18613150100150200250222138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+66Teleop
+84Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
7Coral scored#4
35Coral points21
44Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +49
33Coral scored#18
120Coral points63
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
18Processor points18
16Net points24
34Algae points42
154Total teleop105
Reef
10L4#6
16L3#9
7L2#4
7L1 · trough#3
47Game pieces#31
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +84
0Foul points0
222Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.41.4
79.480.8
Auto21.7
Teleop51.3
End10.4
red by 32.3
1625
#12
51.00.5
51.852.3
Auto9.2
Teleop33.0
End8.9
Second
57.51.4
53.554.9
Auto16.7
Teleop35.4
End5.3
red by 17.6
39.90.4
40.440.8
Auto8.7
Teleop27.2
End3.9
Third
5914
#48
31.51.4
27.628.9
Auto6.3
Teleop22.3
End3.0
red by 3.3
7531
#36
28.10.5
28.929.4
Auto7.0
Teleop19.6
End1.5