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Red80
464529.7
966914.6
369519.6
Blue92
178138.8
470217.9
1045816.3
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions70890204060801001201401608092

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+12
Endgame+14
Fouls+12
AutonomousBlue +10
6Leave3
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points13
6Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +2
12Coral scored#13
44Coral points48
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
64Total teleop66
Reef
6L4#6
3L3#3
2L2#5
1L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
8Foul points6
80Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4645
#25
29.70.0
27.427.4
Auto6.2
Teleop21.6
End1.9
blue by 9.1
1781
#13
38.80.2
39.039.1
Auto6.8
Teleop31.7
End0.4
Second
3695
#33
19.60.0
19.619.6
Auto2.7
Teleop16.4
End0.5
red by 1.7
4702
#17
17.90.2
17.717.9
Auto5.3
Teleop10.1
End2.5
Third
9669
#28
14.60.0
13.413.3
Auto4.5
Teleop8.0
End2.1
blue by 1.8
16.30.2
16.116.3
Auto4.9
Teleop8.9
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsMissed75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed